MOT Tactics: Have Championship sides worked Leeds out?
This article is part of a regular series from Leeds Twitter account All Stats Aren’t We – the team also host a brilliant podcast that goes in-depth into the tactics of Marcelo Bielsa and a deeper look at the underlying stats
Just in case anybody is doubting, Leeds do not have problems beyond scoring goals. The idea that teams have ‘worked out’ Leeds is just not true.
Leeds create almost three big chances per 90, which is far more than any other team. This briefly dipped since Pablo got injured.
But it was back up to normal levels against Birmingham and Preston. However, the only big chance converted in those games was Kalvin Phillips’ winner, so they are moving further away from the median conversion rate for big chances. This needs to change.
They currently occupy the half of the graph that is filled with teams in the bottom half. Meanwhile Fulham and Bristol City and QPR are where a team wants to be. Creating regularly and scoring.
On a more positive note, the reason Leeds are second in the table despite missing so many chances, is because they give away less big chances than any other team in the league. They are fortunate that the % of those chances taken is below the median as well.
Interestingly, West Brom’s opponents have converted their chances at a lower rate than Leeds’ however, they have conceded 15 goals compared to Leeds’ eight, due to conceding more big chances, as well as teams being more clinical in more difficult chances against them.
Leeds are competing at the top because of the best defence in the league. They could be blowing the league away if they just moved towards the median for big chance conversion, but they’re currently going in the opposite direction, hence the clamour for a change up front.