This article is part of a regular series from Leeds United stats supremos All Stats Aren’t We – the team also host a brilliant podcast that goes in-depth into the tactics of Marcelo Bielsa and a deeper look at the underlying stats
Here we go again with the ‘Big Chances’ graphs. As stated before, big chances are rated over 0.3xG and are defined by Opta as ‘chances reasonably expected to be scored’. Penalties are included.
Leeds United have dominated these graphs all season and still do, but not as much as before.
Something to note; Fulham’s recent run of form is reflected well by these graphs. They are now the second-highest creators of big chances in the league and on the defensive front they have dropped onto the threshold of the bottom left quadrant, which is where they’d want to be.
Also, though they don’t create as much as Leeds in terms of big chances, they are pretty much bang on average for converting them, where Leeds are still below average and will need to increase their conversion rate massively before the end of the season in order to hit average.
Meanwhile, West Brom’s creativity has taken a nosedive. They were previously the second-highest creators of big chances and now they find themselves below Fulham and Bristol City. They are also regressing towards the mean in terms of conversion rate.
Their finishing has been exceptional all season and had kept them clear at the top despite underlying data suggesting they weren’t the best side in the league – if their finishing is now abandoning them, they will be extremely vulnerable and are in striking distance for Forest.
It’s also notable that whilst Brentford have possibly the most feared front three in the league, they aren’t one of the top creators or convertors of big chances in the league. However, they’ve scored a lot of goals still as they have been clinical from lower value chances.
Leeds defence a mess – Casilla in poor form
On the defensive front: Leeds have been a mess ever since the Cardiff game in mid-December. Back in November Leeds were conceding 0.6 big chances per 90 but have been wide open defensively and have increased up to giving away one big chance per 90 now.
This is the first time this season they’ve averaged =>1 big chance per 90 against them.
Also before the Cardiff game Leeds had spent the whole season in the bottom left quadrant of the defensive graph, but unfortunately Kiko Casilla has barely made a save within that time and they now find themselves in the ‘clinical opponents’ section.
The final graph is key though. Leeds are still the standout side and will hope to increase their gap between them and their promotion rivals by seeing Tuesday night’s win as the start of an upturn in form.
It’s clear that creativity isn’t an issue, but limiting opponents in creating big chances and most importantly keeping them out will be key as we know Leeds’ conversion % is likely to stay low, unless of course Augustin comes into the side and is clinical from the start.
In other Leeds United news, ‘Wow’, ‘Brutally honest’ – These Leeds fans loving what emotional Millwall fan said on Lions TV