Credit: Imago

Daniel Lewis

Mon 25 May 2026 17:10, UK

Leeds United can be more than happy with their 2025-26 campaign, having achieved the only aim that really mattered.

Reaching a rare FA Cup semi-final at Wembley was a nice bonus, but staying in the Premier League was Daniel Farke‘s mission for the season.

Not only did the German manage that, he did so with relative ease as Leeds were safe with three games left to play.

A 3-0 defeat away at relegated West Ham United on the final day saw Leeds’ good run come to an end, but it mattered little in the grand scheme of things.

As impressive as Leeds were this past season, however, they should have finished even higher.

Leeds’ expected position was even higher than 14th

Leeds found themselves in the relegation zone after just two rounds of matches in November, but the turning point is now well documented.

Putting up a brave second-half showing in a 3-2 defeat away at Manchester City with a tweaked formation in November was the moment Leeds did not look back.

From then on, the Whites gradually climbed into 17th, 16th, 15th and then their final position of 14th place.

However, had Farke’s side won away at a poor West Ham side, they would have finished two places better off in 12th.

As per Opta analyst‘s supercomputer, Leeds should have finished even higher than that as the data points towards an 11th-placed finish.

The model works by simulating the number of goals scored by each side in a match based on expected goals (xG), with each match then simulated 10,000 times.

For those dismissive of this stat, it is effectively a better way of backing up the classic old ‘we should have won that game’ line – or indeed the opposite.

Well, Leeds should have had seven points more than they actually accumulated on the basis of how matches panned out.

Leeds miss out on additional £11m

Leeds banked £144.5million by finishing in 14th place, with that money now hopefully set to be reinvested in the squad.

Finishing in 11th, however, as expected, would have landed the Whites an additional £11m – no small change.

As previously mentioned, though, Leeds chiefs will not exactly be losing any sleep over that as finishing 17th or higher was all that mattered.

Farke did exactly that and has proved he is the best man for the job.

On the basis of these ‘real’ figures, there is no reason why Leeds cannot now push on next season.