Nate Silver predicts where Leeds will finish in Championship
Nate Silver is a US statistician and data analyst who uses models to predict everything from the outcome of elections to sports.
And there’s good news incoming for Leeds fans as Silver’s latest prediction for the Championship has Marcelo Bielsa’s men finishing five points clear at the top.
The very latest version of the Championship on the FiveThirtyEight site would see both Leeds and West Brom going up automatically, and leave Fulham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Bristol City to contest the play-off spots.
Preston would just miss out in seventh.
If all goes to plan, Leeds will be promoted with a few games to spare. Silver has them ending up 11 points clear of Fulham in third on 92 points.
Crunching the numbers, it gives Leeds an 80% chance of promotion and they will win the Championship 50% of the time. There’s a 22% chance of Leeds winning promotion through the play-offs.
The total of 92 points would mean Leeds winning an impressive average of two points per game and we’re ahead of that at the moment, with 40 points from 19 games.
It means that Silver sees Leeds holding pretty much the same performance levels over the season, with West Brom dropping off.
They say the best way to get promoted is by winning the play-off final at Wembley. Whoever does that is welcome to it. We’d be happy with promotion sealed with three games to go.
Leeds play Huddersfield next on Saturday lunchtime and a win there would make it six in a row. It would also mean Leeds going top with West Brom set to play Swansea on Sunday.
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