MOT Tactics: Predicted points totals show what Leeds need to do to secure promotion
Leeds United fans are getting a bit twitchy and for good reason.
After looking like West Brom and Leeds were pulling away at the top, we have now gone six games without a win and lost to Sheffield Wednesday last time out.
Thankfully, West Brom have done little better.
Brentford, in third, have won three of the last six and are now just six points back.
In the worst-case scenario, Leeds could be third after two more games.
However, there are more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic.
We know Leeds are more than capable of going on a run. And the games over the festive period were tough.
Stats back the case for Leeds up, too.
Football data analyst Mark Taylor has compiled a form table for the second half of the season, that shows how Leeds need to perform to finish in the top two.
The good news is that Leeds could perform like a seventh-placed team and still have more than a 50% chance of making the top two.
If they play like a fourth-placed team there’s an 81% chance of automatic promotion.
Brentford, Leeds’ closest promotion rivals at the moment, have far less room for maneuver.
They need to play like a top of the table team to just hit a greater than 50% chance of ending in the top two.
Stats don’t tell the whole story and Leeds fans know this better than anyone.
However, given a choice of being in Leeds’ position now, six points clear of Brentford and due a turn of results. Or Brentford’s, who have to play like champions for the rest of the season to go up, you’d obviously take Leeds.
Recency bias, mixed with what happened last season, added to how much is riding on promotion for Leeds (Marcelo Bielsa, Kalvin Phillips, Andrea Radrizzani) and the usual dose of fan pessimism mean that fans are worried.
And there are reasons to worry if Leeds don’t find a back-up striker who’s at least as good as Eddie Nketiah.
If that is sorted, though, then we should have faith that Leeds are in a brilliant position to finally reclaim their place in the Premier League.
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