MOT Leeds View: Hernandez return needed to turn round worrying stat
This article is part of a regular series from Leeds Twitter account All Stats Aren’t We – the team also host a brilliant podcast that goes in-depth into the tactics of Marcelo Bielsa and a deeper look at the underlying stats.
Read an article on The Athletic this morning about a team I won't mention the name of who are struggling to score goals. It featured a graph on goal difference v expected goal difference so I thought I'd see what an #lufc one would look like. pic.twitter.com/18QZ29qvfQ
— All Stats Aren't We (@AllStatsArentWe) October 14, 2019
As you can see in the picture above, GD and xGD were tracking pretty well early on, helped by Leeds overachieving in the opening game as Pablo Hernandez scored from outside the area (the only time Leeds have done this so far this season).
The difference began to open up as Leeds lost 1-0 to Swansea, in a game with 2.06 xG to Swansea’s 0.46. Then gap widened after the 1-1 draw with Derby (2.54-0.33).
However, one slightly concerning thing is that the xGD was climbing rapidly until late on, in fact dropping down for the first time at the end. This can be explained by Leeds giving away a penalty and going down to 10 men against Millwall, bringing their first xG ‘loss’.
However, another factor is their inability to create as many good chances in the last 3 games without the talismanic Pablo Hernandez.
Still, one can’t help but feel that at some point soon, the law of averages states that Leeds are going to rack up a big win and begin to catch up with their xGD. Fans will hope it happens very soon as it isn’t fun to see underperformance like this week in, week out.
In other Leeds news, Victor Orta responds when asked if the club are planning any big Jan transfers