MOT View: Leeds would be well-advised to heed 26-goal striker claim from Steve Evans
One of the most persistent issues that has plagued Leeds United during their time under Marcelo Bielsa has been an inability to turn their dominance in matches into goals.
Sunday’s 2-0 defeat to Cardiff City was a perfect illustration of exactly that point.
The Whites had 64.96% possession – higher than their season average of 62.08% – as well as an xG of 1.86, as per Wyscout, and yet they still drew a blank.
Ordinarily, a large part of the blame when it comes to the Whites’ inconsistency in front of goal is apportioned to Patrick Bamford – and it’s not hard to see why.
The frontman has an xG of 0.64 this season, but has backed that up with an actual goals per game rate of just 0.35, as per Wyscout.
And with no strikers on the bench against Cardiff as a consequence of Jean-Kevin Augustin’s latest injury complaint, it’s clear to see that Bielsa’s men need to think about beefing up their frontline this summer.
With that in mind, Steve Evans’ comments on Ivan Toney are worth considering.
The 24-year-old has been on fire for Peterborough United this term, hitting 26 goals in all competitions.
And ex-Elland Road boss Evans believes he could be a perfect fit for the Whites.
Speaking to the Peterborough Telegraph, he said: “I was confident he would become a star and I can honestly see him leading the line at a Premier League club or at the biggest Championship club, Leeds United, right now.”
But what could he offer Leeds if they were to follow Evans’ advice and mount a pursuit for him?
The simple answer is goals – and lots of them.
Compared to Bamford, Toney has an xG of 0.6 per game this term, but an actual strike rate of 0.68.
Moreover, his shot accuracy is 11.4% better.
A comparison between the two players’ shot maps illustrates the gulf in quality perfectly.
On the face of it, Bamford’s, pictured above, isn’t great.
Sure, there are some goals in and around the six-yard box, but there are also an awful lot of missed chances from very promising positions.
When compared to Toney’s, however, it’s really hammered home just how inconsistent his finishing is.
There are more goals, obviously, but the most important thing to recognise the much lower density of misses.
It shows quite clearly that Toney is a more efficient striker, and even when he isn’s scoring, he is at least testing the goalkeeper, hitting the target and causing problems.
That’s consistently the case too, with the xG graph above illustrating just how much of a threat he is week in, week out.
Bringing in a striker with no Premier League experience would be a gamble, granted, but with Football Insider suggesting that a fee of around £5 million could be enough to snap him up this summer, it might be a risk worth taking.
In other Leeds United news, Data analyst spotted something you ‘rarely see’ in Whites 2-0 loss v Cardiff.