Phil Hay makes Leeds PL survival claim after 1-0 win v Burnley
The Athletic’s Phil Hay believes that Leeds United have half a foot in next season’s top-flight already.’
Writing after the 1-0 win over Burnley on Sunday, a report from Hay looked into Bielsa’s approach and Leeds’ points tally so far.
The win over Burnley saw Leeds move up to 11th place in the Premier League and reach the 20-point mark.
While some Leeds fans will not thank him, Hay said: “They will call that halfway towards safety but it is 10 years since anyone actually needed to get to 40 points to stay in the Premier League. Bielsa and his players have half a foot in next season’s top flight already.”
Last season, just 35 points were enough to remain in the top flight, with Aston Villa finishing 17th with as many during the 2019/29 campaign.
Starting to believe
Even for the most optimistic of Leeds supporters, many might believe that Hay has jumped the gun a little there.
We have only just passed Christmas and despite a good start to life in the Premier League, bold survival predictions may have come too quickly for some.
However, Hay makes a valid point when looking at the points tally needed to survive. It is traditionally below the ’40-point mark’ and this season we could see it drop even further.
In the last four Premier League seasons, the team who finished in 18th place went down with either 33 or 34 points.
FiveThirtyEight currently predicts Fulham to go down in 19th on 34 points, but the inconsistencies shown by near enough every team in the Premier League may see that drop further.
Add to that a busy schedule we are seeing during a pandemic, it would not come as a huge surprise to see teams finish on lower points totals with squads tested to the limits this season.
Recent history suggests that Leeds will not need 40 points to ensure they survive in the Premier League – in reality, the 35-point mark should be enough and in their current form, that does not look like it will be a problem.
In other Leeds United news, ‘I don’t understand’ – Bobby Zamora baffled by one incident in Leeds win v Burnley