Leeds United should beat Luton Town on Tuesday night, there’s no two ways about it.
With a 22 places and 35 points between them, this one looks like a dead cert – especially coming off the back of that 3-0 demolition of Fulham on Saturday.
But of course, if following Leeds has taught us anything, it’s that nothing can be taken for granted.
Thankfully, we happen to have one of the most obsessively meticulous managers in world football at the helm, and you can bet your last fiver that Marcelo Bielsa won’t be counting his chickens before they’ve hatched.
But what is the best way to harm this Luton side?
One thing that is highly likely is that Leeds will be afforded plenty of possession in this one.
As per Wyscout, the Whites have had an average of 61.66% possession this season, while Luton have had just 47.95%.
Even in Saturday’s 1-0 win over Swansea City, Luton has just 38.16% of the ball.
What’s really interesting about that stat is that it fell pretty consistently as the game went on.
Ultimately, what that shows is that The Hatters were willing to just sit in and defend for their lives in a desperate bid to see the game out.
That should suit Leeds, but it could also lead to some frustration.
And it’s a point that’s reflected by Luton’s match tempo index.
They’re season average is just 15.03, compared to Leeds’ 16.83, and as the graph above shows, they have exceed that tally just once over their last five games.
It’s perhaps no coincidence that they are unbeaten during that time.
Luton will try to stifle the Whites and suffocate their way to a point.
If Leeds are to stop that happening then they need to keep the pace up, move the ball sharply, and draw them out of their shell to make a breakthrough.
If we can do that, it should signify another important step towards the Premier League.
In other Leeds United news, our MOT Super Fans have picked out their saints and sinners from the 3-0 win over Fulham