Jeff Stelling changes his mind on Leeds United survival verdict but still has one question
When Leeds United travel to Brentford in the Premier League on Sunday, the Whites will head to the Gtech Community Stadium with a spring in their step.
Daniel Farke’s men have defied expectations by taking four points from matches against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool.
A stunning Elland Road comeback saw Leeds salvage a 3-3 draw against Liverpool last time out, and there is newfound optimism that they can survive following Farke’s change to a 3-5-2 formation.
Ahead of a favourable fixture run, the West Yorkshire outfit have a chance to put clear daylight between them and the bottom three, with some pundits now changing their minds on their relegation chances.
Jeff Stelling says how Leeds can survive in the Premier League
When discussing the race for survival at the end of November, Jeff Stelling lamented Leeds’ lack of goals as a reason why they could suffer an immediate return to the Championship.
Since then, the Whites have scored seven goals in matches against Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin hitting a purple patch.
Calvert-Lewin’s return of three goals in those fixtures has been all-important, and speaking on talkSPORT, Stelling thinks Leeds will survive but only if they fix their defensive troubles.
“My other question about Leeds, and it still applies, is, if they’re going to survive, for what it’s worth I think they will, they need to stop giving away careless goals,” the former Sky Sports presenter said.
“It’s 12 games since they kept a clean sheet, now they need to start keeping clean sheets.”
Leeds’ goalless draw against Newcastle United at the end of August was the last time they kept a clean sheet in the league. However, the defensive data suggests they could see an improvement.
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Leeds have fairly strong defensive data
According to Understat, nine teams – including Aston Villa and Liverpool – have conceded more expected goals than Leeds’ total of 21.54.
| Leeds defensive data 2025/26 | Premier League rank |
| Goals conceded – 29 | 17th |
| Expected goals against – 21.54 | 10th |
| Shots conceded per game – 11.9 | 12th |
| Tackles per game – 18.5 | 16th |
That means Farke’s side have been unfortunate to ship the fourth most goals in the Premier League this term, having ranked 10th for xGA.
Leeds are also 12th for shots conceded per game, which suggests they’re not facing as many as their relegation rivals.
So, with some easier fixtures on paper to come and the change to a 3-5-2 system working wonders, solid improvements at the back are surely on the horizon.