Supercomputer predicts six-year streak to continue in Aston Villa vs Leeds
Leeds United are aiming to beat Aston Villa for the first time since 2020 when they travel to Villa Park on Saturday.
The Whites currently sit 16th in the Premier League table, and a win away to Unai Emery’s side would give them a huge boost in the relegation battle.
Anton Stach and Pascal Struijk are expected to be available after missing out on the FA Cup fourth-round win over Birmingham City, while Daniel Farke is hopeful that Noah Okafor didn’t sustain a serious injury at St. Andrew’s.
Emery‘s side will certainly prove to be a tough test, and a supercomputer prediction shows exactly that.
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Aston Villa heavy favourites vs Leeds
Aston Villa still have faint hopes of winning the title, as they sit seven points behind Premier League leaders Arsenal.
They suffered a 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle in the FA Cup on Saturday, and they’ll be desperate to get back to winning ways in front of their fans.
According to Opta‘s supercomputer, Leeds will suffer another loss on the road.
- Aston Villa have been given a 66.2 per cent chance of claiming the victory
- Leeds have a 15.4 per cent chance of securing an away win
- A draw has been given an 18.4 per cent probability of occurring
The last time the Whites beat Villa was in October 2020, with Patrick Bamford scoring a hat-trick under Marcelo Bielsa.
Since then, they haven’t won in six league meetings, which includes a 2-1 loss at Elland Road on 23 November.
Unfortunately for Farke, this six-year winless streak looks to continue, and Leeds will have to work hard if they want to claim all three points against the third-placed hosts.
One silver lining for Leeds is that Villa have proven that they can be vulnerable at home.
Aston Villa’s poor home record in 2026 gives Leeds hope
Villa’s home record throughout 2025 was nothing short of phenomenal, but they’ve worryingly started 2026.
After beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 on 3 January, they lost consecutive home games 1-0 to both Everton and Brentford, which proved to be a big blow to their title aspirations.
That was followed by a dramatic win over RB Salzburg as they came from two goals down to win 3-2.
| Stat | Aston Villa’s home record in 2026 |
| Wins | 3 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 3 |
Villa narrowly defeated Brighton 1-0 on Wednesday, before Saturday’s FA Cup defeat against Newcastle confirmed their third home loss of the calendar year.
Leeds are in good form themselves, and they’ll definitely have plenty of chances against a fragile defence with their physicality going forward.
It all depends on whether they can take their opportunities, and if they can, then their hopes of beating Villa for the first time since 2020 would look much more positive.
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