Nate Silver predicts end-of-season top six after Leeds win & Brentford charge continues
Nate Silver’s prediction site FiveThirtyEight has got the figures to calm the frayed nerves of Leeds United fans this morning.
After the latest round of fixtures, with all of the top-four winning, the site has Leeds as a 96% shot to get promoted and a 69% shot to lift the Championship title.
Brentford will just miss out on the top-two despite a huge surge following lockdown.
They’ve won all four of their games without conceding a goal but FiveThirtyEight thinks they will fall four points short of West Brom.
It has Leeds winning the Championship by two points, which means that the six-point gap between us and Brentford will be preserved.
Brentford are seen as the big threat now and they’re currently sat on 72 points.
It means that FiveThirtyEight has them down as picking up 10 points from their last five games – three wins, a draw and one defeat.
Fulham will fall away further but hold onto their fourth-place spot.
Millwall will miss out on the play-offs, with Forest and Cardiff taking the final two spots in the top six.
FiveThirtyEight thinks Leeds will get exactly the 10 points they need from the last five games to make promotion mathematically certain.
It’s still too close for us, though. The figure that has us biting our fingernails is the 6% chance of getting promoted through the play-offs.
No, just no.
Leeds take on 18th-placed Stoke next at Elland Road on Thursday and will know exactly how their rivals have got on before they play.
In other Leeds United news, Phil Hay delivers major Jean-Kevin Augustin update from sources close to player