Xabi Alonso looking straight with concerned Daniel Farke ahead of Stamford Bridge background
Alonso/FarkeBreaking Media

Supercomputer predicts Chelsea vs Leeds United in Carabao Cup

Mark Smith

Assistant Editor AUTHORITY Senior editor responsible for daily news flow, sub-hub management, and maintaining editorial standards across the site network. FOCUS Editorial oversight, newsroom workflow, and verified reporting. THE BRIEF Former Leeds United correspondent Mark has risen through the ranks at Breaking Media Limited to manage the network’s daily output. He works between the reporters and the experts to ensure the data and the news are applied correctly to every story.

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Leeds United are back in action on Wednesday evening as they travel to take on Chelsea.

It's the Carabao Cup third round at Stamford Bridge, with the Whites looking to remain unbeaten.

Daniel Farke guided Leeds to a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest in the previous round, with no easy ties.

Leeds are still unbeaten in the Premier League, having picked up some impressive results against Brighton, Brentford and Forest.

With two home games to follow Chelsea before the extended international break, things are looking good.

Although, the numbers may not agree with that.

Who are favourites to win?

Leeds fans will be confident travelling to Stamford Bridge, that's how well the season has started.

Given the 1-0 defeat at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-final last season, revenge is already on the cards.

Xabi Alonso struggled in the 2-1 defeat against Arsenal on Sunday, and while most will, it takes a lot out of your squad.

But, Opta don't see it that way.

Their supercomputer has backed Chelsea as heavy favourites on 9 September, giving them a 53.5 per cent of victory.

Even after that, a draw is more likely at 23.8 per cent.

To finish off, the least likely result is a Leeds victory, coming in at a 22.7 per cent chance at Stamford Bridge.

Xabi Alonso looking straight with concerned Daniel Farke ahead of Stamford Bridge background
Jamie Carragher predicts Leeds United to fall short of five-year first vs Chelsea

Why Leeds victory is more likely that some think

Continuity is always king in football, and not many have done that better than Farke and the Whites this summer.

Rather than splashing hundreds of millions and bringing in signings in the double figures, they've added huge quality.

James Trafford and Tarik Muharemovic, for example, have stepped in and taken Leeds to the next level.

All while still playing the same system and taking the classic Farke tactic to another level, as seen with the domination against Brighton.

Chelsea, on the other hand, have changed everything for Alonso, who will be rotating with players who are unlikely to have mastered their role.

Leeds can take advantage of that with limited changes, especially given that they don't play until Monday in the Premier League.

Chelsea may be favourites on paper, but don't be shocked if Leeds progress in this one.

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