Credit: Manh Tung, Breaking Media
Credit: Manh Tung, Breaking Media

Leeds United simply cannot sack Daniel Farke, these statistics explain why 

Jack Dawson

Correspondent AUTHORITY Football journalist with experience at the Edinburgh Evening News and GRV Media; Masters graduate from the University of Derby. FOCUS Scottish Premiership coverage with specialist knowledge of Rangers, Celtic, Hearts, Aberdeen, and Motherwell. THE INSIGHT Jack utilises a network of club and industry contacts across the Scottish Premiership to deliver verified, high-speed reporting. He provides the tactical and transfer insight behind the headlines to ensure fans get the full story as it happens.

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Daniel Farke is under heavy pressure at Leeds United as it stands after their 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest.

However, Paraag Marathe should stick by the German with Opta on 10 November, believing that the Peacocks are actually in a false position in the Premier League, and should be 10th

As it stands, Leeds are 16th in the table, just one point above the drop zone.

This has seen calls for Farke to be sacked at Elland Road in order to prevent the West Yorkshire club’s instant relegation.

Daniel Farke with his arms outstretched on the touchline.
Daniel Farke is under pressure at Leeds United (Credit: Imago)

Leeds stars are heavily letting Daniel Farke down

The Peacocks are on a terrible run of form, and have an awful run of fixtures on the horizon going into the new year.

Yet, if Leeds continue playing as they are, they should move up the table and away from the relegation zone.

  • Leeds are aiming to become the first newly-promoted team to avoid relegation in the Premier League in three seasons
  • Farke had previously had a tough time in the top-flight with Norwich
  • After a recent run of poor form, Farke is under heavy pressure

Opta’s expected table to date insists that the West Yorkshire side should be 10th, with a points total of 15.2, 4.2 less than their current situation.

As it stands, Leeds have conceded 5.15 more goals than they should have, the third worst in the division, as well as scored 3.07 goals less than expected, which is again the third-worst.

Leeds stats this season so far
Expected points 15.2
Expected position 10th
xG underpeformance 3.07
xG against underperformance 5.15
Leeds should be higher in the Premier League

Therefore, Farke’s tactics are not what is wrong; it is the players who are incapable of performing to the level needed.

Sacking the German would not resolve this, and instead, the manager should be backed in January to turn the situation around.

Where do Opta predict Leeds to finish?

After the defeat to Nottingham Forest, Opta have once again increased the chances of relegation for the newly-promoted club.

Leeds now have a 51.44% chance of going down, the second-highest in the Premier League.

Unsurprisingly, Wolves are the favourites to be relegated, with a massive 90.15% chance of finishing in the bottom three.

Burnley are also expected to join Leeds and Wolves, with the Clarets given a 49.65% chance of relegation.

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