David Woods

Wed 15 January 2020 8:16, UK

This article is part of a regular series from Leeds United stats supremos All Stats Aren’t We – the team also host a brilliant podcast that goes in-depth into the tactics of Marcelo Bielsa and a deeper look at the underlying stats

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Update time on the Big Chances graphs. As always, these are chances greater than 0.3xG – ‘a chance a player should reasonably be expected to score’. They include penalties.

Leeds United have always been dominant in these. Are they still?

Well, yes, but the recent run has seen them dropping back towards the pack in terms of creativity. They are still the most creative side in the league, but with their conversion percentage being below average, it would help to have a larger gap. The return of Pablo Hernandez is key here.

It is notable that West Brom are also dropping off a lot though and they are no longer the second most creative side, but only the fourth. This is encouraging. Also note that Brentford are down in sixth. However, they are much more clinical from lower value chances.

On the defensive front, this is the first time all season that Leeds haven’t been the side conceding the fewest big chances. This isn’t surprising considering how open Leeds have been in the last 7 games.

Before this run the most big chances they had given away in one game was two. In this run they have given away two or more on three occasions, with two of those being three and four big chances. Unfortunately, the team that have usurped them as the best defence are Brentford.

Fortunately, Leeds still have a lower percentage of those big chances ending up as goals, but in this run they have jumped from the left side of the graph to the right, as Casilla has conceded a disastrous 76% of the shots on target he has faced, six of these being big chances.

The good news though is that Leeds are still one of only two teams that give away less than one big chance per 90.

West Brom are significantly worse in that regard, though they are the side with the lowest percentage of those chances ending up as goals. If they continue to give away big chances at this rate, this percentage will move closer and closer towards the mean and they will continue to drop points.

The final graph showing big chances created v conceded should be an encouragement. Leeds and Brentford leave West Brom behind on this graph and clearly have the best processes.

There have been cracks in the process lately, but with such important personnel missing in the centre of the park, it’s hardly surprising.

With players starting to come back from injury now, Leeds will hope to improve back to the levels they were reaching earlier in the season where they were massive outliers on these graphs.

On the other hand, Brentford may keep coming, but West Brom will need to improve their process or they will need players like Diangana and Pereira to bail them out going forwards. They are capable of this, but it’s highly risky as any injury or loss of form from either could be costly.

In other Leeds United news, Phil Hay says attacker to arrive at Leeds tomorrow as club looks to seal first major Jan deal