Athletic journalist makes big claim about Leeds striker Patrick Bamford
Athletic journalist Tom Worville has claimed that Leeds United striker Patrick Bamford will win this season’s Golden Boot.
Bamford is currently three goals behind Mo Salah who has 13.
Heung-min Son (12), Bruno Fernandes (11), Jamie Vardy (11) and Dominic-Calvert Lewin (11) all have more goals than Bamford.
Bamford is in good company on 10 goals with Harry Kane and they’re two ahead of Callum Wilson.
There is method behind Worville’s prediction – in a big round-up of predictions for the season.
Writing in the Athletic Worville said, “Leeds never stop attacking, irrespective of the scoreline, which will play into Bamford’s favour and has done already given he has the best xG per 90 minutes in the league.
“His tally hasn’t been boosted as much by penalties, which we have seen with Salah and Jamie Vardy, who have both struggled of late.
“Son’s 12 goals from an xG of 4.6 indicates that he either won’t keep up his hot finishing streak or he’ll put this prediction in the mud and we’ll have to tear up the models and start again.”
Hat-trick Bamford
This would be an incredible achievement for Bamford and it’s definitely possible.
Bamford has started taking penalties and that will boost his numbers in the second half of the season.
And, if you take penalties out of the equation, Bamford has the best xG in the Premier League with 0.64/90. [FbRef]
Bamford also takes the most shots per 90 in the Premier League (3.96) and has the most shots on target (26).
Bamford has also been converting this season – his xG without penalties is 10.3 and he’s matched that almost perfectly.
The bookies still think it’s a long shot and have him at 20/1. Salah is the favourite at just over 2/1, followed by Harry Kane.
However, if Bamford can carry on as he is and convert his penalties, he’s definitely in with a big shout – especially when you look at the stat from LUFCDATA that shows Leeds have created more chances (196) than any other Premier League side so far this season.
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