As we’ve said a lot, Leed United’s underlying numbers have been strong all season, as shown by the fact that their expected goal difference has been on an upward trajectory all along.

Funnily enough their best runs of results have both followed their worst runs up until that point.

Before the seven-game streak, Leeds had a run of only two wins in seven and before this current win streak they had won only two in 11.

It’s good to see how the goal difference leaps up to catch up with the expected goal difference in a run like this. Almost as if being clinical helps…

However, the key is seeing both lines moving upwards. Whilst the blue line continues moving upwards, Leeds are winning games and moving towards their objective of promotion. Whilst the yellow line shows their performances merit the wins and their good form is sustainable.

In a dream scenario – if this form could continue through the next three games of Huddersfield (h), Cardiff (h), Fulham (h) then Leeds would be so close to the end goal.

Those are tricky fixtures so take nothing for granted, but the underlying numbers show Leeds back to their best.

We should have pointed out why the goal difference has gone up so much in the last few games – firstly, clean sheets.

No individual errors meaning Leeds haven’t conceded goals they shouldn’t like the previous run. xGA has dropped as well due to better structure.

Leeds weren’t clinical in the first three of this run but did enough to pick up three 1-0s. In the last game they scored four from 1.27 xG, which is lovely.

We’re sure they’d like to create more going forwards, but shoot like they did yesterday and the rest of the season becomes much easier.

In other Leeds United fans, ‘Another apology coming from the EFL’ – Some Leeds fans react to Phil Hay update: ‘Shocking’


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