By Dave Woods

4th Oct, 2019 | 8:13am

Leeds crushing the Championship for expected goals but...

Leeds are second in the Championship after the midweek games, with Swansea on top and Tuesday’s opponents West Brom in third. 

According to xG “scores” from InfoGol, simulated for all Championship games, Leeds are where they should be. They’ve got an 80% probability of being in the top two at this point in the season.

There’s a 16% probability they’d be 3rd to 6th, 4% of being 7th to 21st and 0% of being in the relegation spots.

Swansea, sitting on top of the league however, have just a 3% chance of being in the top two and a 76% chance of being 7th to 21st.

West Brom have a 21% probability of being in the top two and a 40% probability of being 3rd to 6th.

What this proves is that Leeds really need to start converting more chances.

Swansea are overperforming and by xG stats should be 7th to 21st. That suggests that unless something changes, they’re not going to be top two for much longer. You can’t keep surfing the peak of variance like that.

For Leeds, the picture is much healthier. The second closest team to their probability percentage for being in the top two is Fulham with 24%. And they have a 38% shot of being 3rd to 6th and a 37% shot of being 7th to 21st.

If Leeds were scoring the same number of expected goals they would be well clear at the top.

As it is, Patrick Bamford needs to find his shooting boots (he’s blanked in the last five) and others need to start chipping in.